The Peace and Security Referendum & Election, Choice for
Dr. Ashraf Ghani
By: Nazar Mohammad Mutmaeen
Writer & Analyst
Political analysts considered the April, 5th 2014 presidential
Election as the Peace and Security Referendum, some analysts said the
election was a referendum regarding the 12year Gov of Karzai, means many
candidates talked and had the peace and security slogan to people, used a
white pigeon as a symbol. People were tired from the president Karzai
Government, so People went with death threaten to Polling stations and
shown their dissension against Pre-Karzai and his likely candidate.
It is an issue that how many Voters used their votes? Researchers had
questions regarding the IEC (Independent Election Commission) incorrect
and apposing reports, it will reported later that how many voters went to
Polling stations, but it is clear that people used their votes in Big
Cities, the big amount 2 million people of Kabul reportedly used their
votes, but there were provinces the total number of the voters were at
about 100,000 and in some insecure provinces at about 50,000.
Dr. Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai is the first, he got much more votes, already we
said; if people go to polling stations, the Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah
votes would be more than other candidates.
Reasons of the increase of the Ghani Votes:
Ghani failed against Karzai in 2009 election, he started with close
consultation of Afghan and American Advisors to find the reasons of
failing and improve it, he worked hardly underground.
2. He can
with his maturity to re build and make a good relations with Karzai, and
can to limit entrust and non-confidence between him and Karzai.
3. As he
was a head of the security transition commission, he travelled during his
duty to different provinces and, and meet with tribal elders, religious
scholars, and political persons in the provinces, made his good background
with community and worked for the upcoming election underground.
transition of the power from foreigners to Afghan Security Forces, Dr.
Ghani had speech to ANA, ANP, ALP, NDS and other security forces, he
prepared the Afghan forces likely speech, many security forces pleased
from his speech. So those security forces support Ghani, many of them give
votes and not allowed others to fraud against Ghani.
political groups, parties and persons, who were unhappy from Karzai and
his team, they joined with Ghani and supported him, the important are
noted as: the Said Ahmad Gailani National Islamic Front, the Sibghatullah
Mujaddadi National liberation front, the Anwarul Haq Ahadi Afghan Nations
Party, the Islamic Movement of Musa Hotak, Hezb e Islami of Haji Din
Mohammad, Ismaili Shiite people of Nadri, Rights and Equity movement of
Hanif Atmar, Provincial Councils (Shora), Tribal Councils (Shora) and
other small groups.
Rashid Dostum, Ex-active and late non active, who has a specific and
cashed votes of Uzbek tribes in North, Ghani selected dostum as a First
Voice President, and made him again an active, Ghani can and will answer
to North Alliance created issues and conflicts by Dostum in the future.
got support of 2nd Voice President Khalili, and Khalili has
support of the remote area Hazar residences, the remoter area Hazar
thinking that Khalili is successor of Ustad Mazari and not trustily
working to Iran, and he is better than Muhaqiq and Akbari.
people were tired from Gov of Karzi and wanted changes, just want to end
the power of the Karzai and his family, people knew giving vote to Zalmai
Rassoul is support of Karzia, so they rather to use their vote to Ghani.
crown Kings of Panjshir were not likely any more to Tajik people, many
Tajik people looks unhappy from the unlikely behaviours and irritated
policy of Panjshiri Officials, some Tajik were unhappy on the collation of
Hezb e Islami and Jamiat e Islami, they said; several years fight with
Hezb e Islami not for sharing of the power and gathered, so they give vote
to Dr. Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai.
analysts declared; the people of Loya Paktya (Paktika, Paktia and Khost
Provinces) in general non Durani Tribes thought they didnít received their
rights during 12years of the Karzia Gov, so they give votes to Ghani (non
Durani tribes person), and reported that many Durani tribes relatives also
give vote to Ghani, due to their gloom form Karzai and his family.
people are thirsty for peace and security, Ghani get prophet form his
peace slogan, in last 2009 election he said; I will bring peace in
6months, and will try for the real peace, if Taliban fighting, I will not
fight with them, I will announce one way ceasefire, and reported that
presently his team working on the same idea.
support of the communists, anti Pashtoon (Sitam), Afhgan Millat (Pashton
Group), Shulayee group relative people (like Chinese Communists),
intellectuals, technocrats, young generation, writers and poets, some
cultural spiritual elders (Pir Gailani & Mujaddadi), and support of ANA
and ANP (not all, large number) were with Ghani.
13. Support of
Hekmatyar the head of Hezb e Islami from Hilal and not support of the
North Alliance was not without affection, those members of Hezb, who donít
want to go with Gov and Arghandiwal (head of Hezb e Islami of Kabul,
joined with North Alliance), they didnít give vote to Dr. Abdullah
Abdullah, and those members of Hezb e Islami (Hekmatyar) they were
disagree with statement of Hekmatyar to support Helal and participate in
Election, they were angry and give vote to Ghani
support of some neighbourhood countries from Ghani, and none fearing of
some neighbourhood countries, India and china donít have concern regarding
Ghani, Pakistan is happy and Iran thinking their benefits are protected in
presence of Ghani.
important, Dr. Ashraf Ghani had support of the Obama Administration,
present US Gov and in general Democrat Party of USA and also had support
of some republicans. But in general Republicans supported the Karzai
likely candidate Dr. Rassoul.
16. West media
and country wise west relative media had equal campaign to Dr. Asharaf
Ghani and Abdulla Abdullah.
Dr. Ghani will be faced with below problems:
1. It is
important that Tajik not seeing themselves in the Ghani Team, and will
think that they are losing the power, other side Uzbek Rashid Dostum
coming in to the power, there were bloody fights in 1990 between Dostum
and North Alliance (Atta Noor), when Dostum had ammunition and support of
others, he defeated the NA commanders, so this time when Dostum have
support of Gahni and well ammunition, NA will not clearly try to create
problems and make conflicts, will try to deal with active politicians.
stated; if coming in to the power, he will sign BSA, so the sign of BSA
will close the door of Peace with Taliban, and the Ghani peace and
security slogan will come under question? Taliban will increase attacks,
fight will get continuation, it is clear that Afghan civilian hate form
the war in order and in presence of foreign troops.
bloody fight between Dostum and Taliban, if Dostum coming in to the power
as a fist Voice president, so difficult and not believed peace talking of
Taliban with Ghaini Gov in presence of Dostum. Actually if Ghani believe
on real peace, even if he is losing the power, and bring deeply and
positive changes in the Gov system, in this case if both USA and Afghan
Gov agreed and to want real peace, so there is chance and possibility of
USA want and hope to become Taliban as a part of the Afghan Gov, and share
power, same procedure will support by USA during Ghani Gov, in such case
peace is difficult, there would be availably of peace when USA start talk
face to face with Taliban, and later on Intra Afghan talks.
5. It is
clear that The active team of President Karzai will create problems to the
Gov of Ghani, and will try for weakness of Ghani, even if can, they will
prevent Ghainís Government. And Passable that the Karzai sympathy ALP and
Police Commanders will join with Taliban.
6. Old and
worn-out, Religious and fundamentalists, Ex-Mujahidin (in presence of US
Troops), all mentioned classes will try to create problems to the Gov of
Ghani, they thinking Ghani is coming with secular and new faith.
already started cold war with USA, particularly the Ukraine issue is a
problem between USA, Europe and Russia, as Russia know, Dr. Ghani has
support of USA, so Russia will be not happy, if Ghani is coming as a
president of Afghanistan.
What is important to be done by Dr. Ghani
It is reported that Dr. Abdullah Abdullah trying to deal with Ghani before
2nd round election, during last election 2009, dealing between
Abdullah Abdullah and Karzai, Abdulla Abdullah withdrawn in fever of
Karzia in 2nd round election, the Karzai Gov kept the Post of
MoFA to Abdullah Abdullah, but his advisors informed him, if accept MoFA,
will lose his dignity and people will not trust on him in next election,
Abdullah Abdullah Accept to get USD 80 Million in mediation of John Kerry
and be quite.
If Dr. Ghani try to deal with Abdullah Abdullah, it will be not acceptable
to Dostum and Khalili groups, and will hopeless those who voted with death
threaten to Ghani.
Seems the election will go to 2nd round, it is clear Dr. Ghani
would be winner, the scattered votes also will come to the Ghani Boxes,
and it is also passable to come Ghani under pressure and deal with
Abdullah Abdullah and come on with result.
It is reported various hands working and trying to join Dr. Zalmai Rassoul
and Dr. Abdullah Abdullah, the Ex-Mujahidin leaders also have meetings, if
they can to prevent the coming of Ghani as a president, otherwise will try
to get privileges. But if Ghani dealing, he will lose his trust and
confidence among the community, Karzai lost and decayed his background due
to political dealing and greed of power.
Peace and security is very important, Afghans wants it, those who went
with dangerous situation to Polling Stations, they encouraged the peace
slogan of candidates, if there is no serious seeking for the real peace,
Dr. Ghaniís Gov will be faced with same problems and conflicts as Karzai
was faced. Fight will be continued and situation will get worse.
If Dr. Ghani sign BSA without stipulations, it is also continuation of the
war, as Dr. Ghani stated that he will sign BSA, if add in the terms of BSA;
if Taliban, USA and Afghan groups reached to result and agreed on peace
and security, on that time BSA should be cancelled, in this case there is
availability for the peace, if Ghani would like to sign BSA without
Changes, so the peace door is closing.
Briefly would like to say: as Dr. Ghani introduced as a serious person, if
he is serious regarding the peace, so he will be ready for big and
important political changes and offerings, including withdrawal of foreign
troops, deeply changes in the Gov system, even transferring the Political
Power to Independent Administration before ending of his Presidential
Result and summary:
Election done with threatens, there were fraud or not? Large number or
less number of people voted? International community and Int. Media
Evaluated well done election, USA and Afghan War involved countries tried
their best to hide their failed war in Afghanistan due to election, USA
supported and likely person would be winner, if upcoming president
repeating the last 12years mistaken experiences, and donít know lessons
learned, donít work for Afghans and peace, war will get continuation,
civilian will get distance from Gov, presence of the foreign troops in the
country is not solution, dealing and collation Gov (Sharing of the power
without structure and proper system) is not working in Afghanistan, new
faiths and secularism creating much more new problems.
It is important to work USA and upcoming Gov on the real peace and
Security plan, and consider the demands and requirements of the Political,
Religious, Nationalists and regional (provincials) parties and peoples.
And think carefully regarding the neighbourhood and Afghanistan Issues
involved Countries, the legal demands and requirements of each others, and
be respectable to each other, other countries not fell threat from
Afghanistan in the future, and to be believed to reciprocal respects.
خدايه! کابل د نورستان مرکز کړي
دکابل ټکسي چلوونکي غله
مشرحاجي صاحب هوښيارسړی دی، خو والي صاحب!!!
او برتانوي پوځي اکاډمي
سيد حامد ګيلاني څه شي په غوسه کړی؟!!!
يوه شرموونکي مظاهره - کابل
حضرت صاحب دي خدای مړ کړي؟!!!
سوفا، امنيتې او دفاعي تړون او مشورتې لویه جرګه
غل امت او غل رهبر
مشورتي لويې جرګې ته د ولسمشر کرزي وروستۍ وينا
حضرت صاحب لبیک، له هیواده ستا د هجرت او وتلو په تمه
د افغانستان او امريکا اړيکې: غلط پېل او خطرناکې پايلې
دکرزي او امريکې تر خوابدون ها خوا کتنه
تنش اخیر افغانستان و امریکا؛ خواسته های عربستان سعودي و پاکستان چیست؟
د متفکرانو متفکر
اوباما څه شي اړ کړ چې کرزي ته ټليفون وکړي!؟؟؟
of Marshal Fahim in delicate and sensitive situation
دکابل پوهنتون نوم کرزي د ځان له پاره پټ کړی
د سولې او امنيت ریفرنډم او د ډاکټر اشرف غني غوراوی
Peace and Security Referendum & Election, Choice for Dr. Ashraf Ghani